Applied Economics Teaching Resources

an AAEA Journal

Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Case Study

Applied Economic Models of Commodity and Input Markets to Assess Prices, Quantities, Farm and Other Input Supplier Impacts, and Consumer and Taxpayer Costs

Joe Dewbre(a), Wyatt Thompson(b), Sera Chiuchiarelli(b)
(a)Private Economist, (b)University of Missouri

JEL Codes: JEL Codes: A29, Q02, Q11
Keywords: Market model, market equilibrium, agricultural supplier impacts, corn, hogs, pork, winners and losers

Publish Date: December 10, 2024
Volume 6

View Full Article (PDF) | Request Teaching Notes/Supplemental Materials

Abstract

The impacts of exogenous market and policy developments reverberate up and down the farm to the retail marketing chain, affecting consumer prices, farm input prices, and the economic well-being of many people. Applied economists have developed analytical tools that trace how developments at one point in the supply chain may affect prices and quantities at other points. The particular analytical tools proposed here aim to provide students with hands-on experience in using market models and real data to simulate relevant policy and market scenarios. We start with a simple model representing only the supply and demand for corn and end with a vertically integrated model that links corn, hog, and pork markets. Each phase of model development gives a chance to build and test economic intuition about how price effects come about and their impacts on various market participants: who benefits and who pays—the winners and losers.

About the Authors: Joe Dewbre is a Private Economist (joe.dewbre@gmail.com). Wyatt Thompson is a Professor at the University of Missouri (thompsonw@missouri.edu). Sera Chiuchiarelli is an International Market and Policy Analyst Senior Research Associate at the University of Missouri (chiuchiarellis@missouri.edu).

Acknowledgements: This material is based in part on work supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, under Agreement No. 58-0111-22-015 and the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Hatch project number MO-HASS0024. Any opinion, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture nor their employers.

Copyright is governed under Creative Commons CC BY-NC-SA

References

Brester, G., J. Atwood, and M. Boland. 2023. Equilibrium Displacement Models: Theory, Applications, and Policy Analysis. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Libraries Publishing.

Brester, G., J. Marsh, and J. Atwood. 2004. “Distributional Impact of Country-of-Origin Labeling in the U.S. Meat Industry.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 29(2):206–277.

Dewbre, J., J. Anton, and W. Thompson. 2001. “Direct Payments, Safety Nets and Supply Response: The Transfer Efficiency and Trade Effects of Direct Payments.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 83(5):1204–1214.

Floyd, J.E. 1965. “The Effects of Farm Price Supports on the Return to Land and Labour in Agriculture.” Journal of Political Economy 3:148–158.

Gardner, B. 1987. The Economics of Agricultural Policies. New York: Macmillan.

Global Trade Analysis Project. 2023. “GTAP Models: Current Model.” www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/models/current.asp.

Hahn, W., S. Sydow, and W. Preston. 2019. “Revisiting U.S. Country of Origin Labeling Trade Damage Estimates: How Does an Equilibrium Displacement Model Perform Under Different Scenarios.” Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 67:349–361.

Hertel, T.W. 1989. “Negotiating Reductions in Agricultural Support: Implications of Technology and Factor Mobility.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 71:559–573.

Lee, H., D. Sumner, and A. Champetier. 2018. “Pollination Markets and the Coupled Futures of Almonds and Honey Bees: Simulating Impacts of Shifts in Demands and Costs.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 101(1):230–249.

Lusk, J., G.T. Tonsor, and L.L. Shultz. 2020. “Beef and Pork Marketing Margins and Price Spreads During COVID-19.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 43(1):4–23.

MacDonald, J.M., and M.E. Ollinger. 2000. “Scale Economies and Consolidation in Hog Slaughter.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 82(2): 334-346.

Martini, R. 2011. “Long Term Trends in Agricultural Policy Impacts.” OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 45. Paris, France.

Muth, R.F. 1964. “The Derived Demand for a Productive Factor and the Industry Supply Curve.” Oxford Economic Papers 16:221–234.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 2001. Market Effects of Crop Support Measures. Paris, France.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 2005. The Six-Commodity PEM Model: Preliminary Results. Paris, France.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 2021. Policies for the Future of Farming and Food in Norway. Paris, France.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 2022. Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation 2022. Paris, France. www.oecd.org/publications/agricultural-policy-monitoring-and-evaluation-22217371.htm.

Piggott, R. 1992. “Some Old Truths Revisited.” Presidential address, 36th Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural Economics Society, Department of Agricultural Economics & Business Management, The University of New England, Armidale NSW 2351, Canberra, 10–12 February.

Salhofer, K., and F. Sinabell. 1999. “Utilising Equilibrium-Displacement Models to Evaluate the Market Effects of Countryside Stewardship Policies: Method and Application.” Die Bodenkultur [Austrian Journal of Agricultural Research] 50(2):143–153.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. 2011. “U.S. Feeder Pig-to-Finish Production Cash Costs and                 Returns.” Washington DC. Accessed at www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/commodity-costs-and-returns/commodity-costs-and-returns/#Historical%20Costs%20and%20Returns:%20Hogs,%20farrow-finish.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist. 2015. Economic Analysis of Country of Origin Labeling (COOL). Report to Congress. Washington DC, April.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist. 2023. “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.” Available at www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde.

Westhoff, P., M. Rosenbohm, J. Whistance, J. Binfield, S. Chiuchiarelli, B. Maltsbarger, W. Thompson, and F. Malakhail. 2022. “Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets.” FAPRI-MU Report 4-22.

Wohlgenant, M.K. 2011. “Consumer Demand and Welfare in Equilibrium Displacement

Models.” In J.L. Lusk, J. Roosen, and J.F. Shogren, ed. Oxford Handbook of The Economics of Food Consumption and Policy. Oxford UK: Oxford University Press, pp. 292–319.

Zhao, X., J.D. Mullen, G.R. Griffith, W.E. Griffiths, and R.R. Piggott. 2000. “An Equilibrium Displacement Model of the Australian Beef Industry.” Economic Research Report No. 4, NSW Agriculture, Orange.